10,015 wallets • 90-day analysis • October 2024
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We analyzed 10,015 wallets from Ether.fi's Season 3 airdrop, tracking behavior for 90 days post-distribution. The data reveals a critical pattern: 54.8% of recipients scored below 100, representing massive waste in token distribution.
Wallets with scores below 200 show 64-70% dump rates, while those above 500 demonstrate 77% retention. Historical bad actors show 39-59% repeat behavior in Ether.fi Season 3.
Wallets that dumped in previous airdrops show high repeat rates in Ether.fi Season 3
Critical Finding
In the 0-50 score range, 39.3% of historically bad actors repeated their behavior. This rate increases to 44-59% in the 200-400 range, proving that low scores are strong predictors of future dumps.
How ETHFI tokens were distributed to good vs bad actors across score ranges
Massive Waste in Low Scores
In scores 0-200, bad actors received 715,760 ETHFI tokens worth approximately $1.79M at $2.50/ETHFI. This represents pure waste that could have been allocated to quality participants or saved entirely.
Quantified value of using zScore for Ether.fi Season 3
Tokens saved from being distributed to low-quality wallets
Wallets with scores 500+ show 77% good behavior vs 70% below 500
Over half of recipients are low-quality, new, or test accounts
Historical bad actors in low scores repeat bad behavior at high rates
Estimated value saved by filtering scores 0-200
Highest quality wallets show perfect retention behavior
Key findings from the Ether.fi Season 3 analysis
Wallets scoring above 500 demonstrate significantly better behavior - 77% good vs 64-70% in lower ranges. This represents a critical quality inflection point.
54.8% of all recipients (5,492 wallets) scored below 100. These are primarily new wallets, test accounts, or users with minimal protocol engagement.
Wallets that were historically bad actors show 39-59% repeat rates in lower score ranges. Past behavior is a strong predictor of future actions.
In scores 0-200, bad actors received 715,760 ETHFI tokens. This represents wasted distribution that could have gone to quality participants.
Traditional vs optimized distribution outcomes
Financial impact from score-based filtering
Optimize your airdrop budget based on wallet quality scores
64-70% will dump immediately, historical bad actors
67% dump risk, mixed engagement patterns
64-65% good behavior, active traders
77% retention, quality LP providers
81-100% retention, protocol champions
Step-by-step guide to implementing zScore in your airdrop
Download complete dataset: 10,015 wallets, 90-day tracking, all scores & behaviors