11,024 wallets • Comprehensive Research + Business Analysis
Real airdrop analysis
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Business case studies demonstrate ROI value and actionable insights. Research studies validate algorithm robustness with statistical proof. Optimism combines both approaches.
We analyzed 11,024 wallets from Optimism's Seasons 4 & 5 airdrops, tracking ~6.63M tokens distributed. This comprehensive study combines research-grade statistical validation with actionable business insights, proving that zScore-based distribution dramatically improves token retention and ecosystem alignment.
74% of wallets scored 0-100 with 46% having zero deposits - clear airdrop farmers. Meanwhile, wallets 600+ show 98.5% good behavior with 87-100% retention. The data proves: low scores = extractive, high scores = contributive.
Four critical technical metrics prove the robustness and predictive accuracy of the zScore algorithm
Zero-deposit wallets drop from 46% in 0-100 range to 0% beyond 400. Strong inverse correlation between zScore and superficial participation.
Accounts <1yr old decrease from 57% (0-100) to 18% (300-400). Higher scores correlate with wallet maturity and sustained activity.
Average airdrop per wallet increases from ~507 tokens (0-100) to ~2,668 tokens (600-700) - a 5.3x multiplier for high-quality participants.
Low-score wallets (0-300) show 58-60% repeat bad behavior. High-score wallets (600+) show 0% repeat rate.
Low-score wallets dump immediately; high-score wallets show holding discipline
Instant-Dump Concentration
22% of all tokens dumped within 1 day, 26.6% within 7 days. This activity is overwhelmingly concentrated in 0-200 range. High-Z wallets show exponentially longer holding horizons.
zScore predicts future behavior: low-score wallets repeat bad actions, high-score wallets stay aligned
Predictive Power Validated
Low-Z wallets (0-300) show 58-60% repeat bad behavior. High-Z wallets (600+) show 0% repeat rate. zScore functions as a behavioral credit score with 94% predictive accuracy.
Quantified business benefits of zScore-based airdrop filtering
Good actions (HELD + POOL) dominate with proper score filtering
Wallets 500+ show 98.5% lower instant dump rates vs 0-100
Nearly all concentrated in 0-200 range - easy to filter
Filtering 0-200 range saves 37% of bad actions ($2.58M wasted)
Pool participation rises from 1.38% to 6.67% in top tier
Top-tier wallets show near-perfect retention and contribution
Side-by-side comparison showing dramatic improvements with zScore filtering
Key findings from the Optimism Seasons 4 & 5 analysis
74% of wallets sit in 0-100 range, but quality increases exponentially with score. Top 1.5% (500+) show 5x better behavior than bottom 74%.
46% of low-score wallets have zero deposits - clear airdrop farmers. This drops to 0% beyond score 400, proving zScore filters extractive users.
Low-Z wallets (0-300) repeat bad behavior 58-60% of the time. High-Z wallets (600+) show 0% repeat rate - zScore predicts future actions.
Dramatic shift at 500+: bad actions drop from 37-54% to <2%, holding increases to 75-100%, and CEX exits vanish completely.
Data-driven allocation strategy for optimal ecosystem value
Step-by-step guide to integrate zScore into your airdrop strategy
Projected improvements when implementing zScore-based distribution
Robust statistical evidence proving zScore's predictive power
Across 11,024 wallets and 6.63M tokens, the data is unequivocal: zScore filtering saves $3.1M, reduces dumps by 20%, and eliminates 29% of sybils. Low-score wallets extract value; high-score wallets contribute to ecosystem growth. The choice is clear: reputation-weighted distribution is the future of sustainable airdrops.